Ten years ago, a Dublin house and a Dublin condo cost almost the same per square foot. They no longer do. Here is what the split into two markets means for buyers in mid-2026.

If you are shopping in Dublin, you are really shopping in two markets, not one. Detached single-family houses and attached homes — condos and townhomes — now trade on different price curves, move at different speeds, and offer buyers very different leverage. As a buyer’s agent who works exclusively in the Tri-Valley, I pulled the Bay East monthly records for both segments to measure exactly how far apart they have drifted.

The short version: through 2019, the two segments were nearly interchangeable on a price-per-square-foot basis. Since the COVID period, detached has pulled ahead by roughly a quarter. And in the first half of 2026, both segments are cooling — but the attached market is cooling faster.

Two Price Curves That Used to Be One

The first chart tracks sold price per square foot for both segments, smoothed over six months to strip out the noise of thin monthly samples. Detached is the red line; attached is blue. The COVID Anomaly window (2020–2022) is shaded.

Read the chart left to right and the story is hard to miss. The two lines run together for six years, then fork.

The Long Recovery (2014–2019): near parity

From 2014 through 2019, Dublin houses and condos climbed the same staircase. Detached rose from about $414 per square foot in 2015 to roughly $505 by 2018; attached tracked within a few dollars, at $403 and $494. Across that stretch the detached premium averaged just 2.5%. For a brief window in early 2017, attached even sold for more per square foot than detached — an 11.5% inversion — a reminder of how interchangeable the two segments once were on a per-square-foot basis.

The COVID Anomaly (2020–2022): the fork opens

Beginning in 2020, the two curves separated. This coincided with a broader pandemic-era shift toward detached homes seen across the Bay Area, and Dublin’s data followed the same pattern. By 2020 the gap had widened to 6%; by 2022 it reached 22%. Detached $/SqFt peaked at $878 in May 2022, while attached topped out earlier and lower, at $685 in March 2022. Both segments ran hot, but detached ran hotter.

The Rate-Shock Correction and after (2023–2026): the gap holds

When mortgage rates jumped, both curves rolled over — yet the gap did not close. It settled into a new normal near 30%. The 2024 annual averages tell it plainly: detached $808 per square foot against attached $624, a 29% spread. As of June 2026, detached sits at $708 and attached at $566, a 25% premium. In other words, the divergence that opened during COVID has proven durable, not temporary.

Current Conditions: Both Cooling, Attached Cooling Faster

Price is only half the picture. Supply and speed tell buyers where the leverage is, and here the two segments have clearly parted ways in 2026.

Inventory has rebuilt in both segments this spring, but not evenly. The next two charts show why.

On the attached side, active listings climbed to 88 in May 2026, and months of supply reached 5.7 — well past the roughly three-month line that separates a balanced market from a buyer’s market. June eased back to 72 active and 3.8 months, but attached supply has run above balanced for most of 2026. Detached tells a tighter story: supply peaked at 3.9 months in March and has since settled to 2.5 months in June, still inside balanced territory.

That supply gap shows up in how the two segments transact. Detached homes still clear in about 19 days and close slightly over asking, at 101% of list. Attached homes take roughly twice as long — 39 days — and close just under list, at 99%. When a house sells over asking in three weeks and a comparable condo sells under asking in six, buyers hold more cards in the attached market.

Volume has thinned in both segments since the 2021 peak, when Dublin recorded 536 detached and 473 attached sales. By 2025 that had fallen to 311 detached and 196 attached. Attached volume is not only lower but noisier month to month — Dublin closed just 12 attached homes in June 2025 and 25 in June 2026. With so few transactions, a single luxury townhome or entry-level condo can swing the monthly averages, which is one reason I smooth these series before drawing conclusions.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers weighing house vs. condo: the per-square-foot premium for detached is now structural, near 25–30%, not the rounding error it was before 2020. If your priority is space and long-term appreciation has favored detached, the premium is the price of entry. If your priority is a lower absolute price point, attached remains the entry into Dublin — a $845,000 median versus $1,505,000 for detached, a difference of roughly $660,000.

For buyers in the attached market: conditions favor you more than they have in years. Supply above the balanced line, homes sitting 39 days, and sale prices under list all point to room for negotiation. This is the segment where a measured offer and patience are most likely to be rewarded.

For buyers in the detached market: leverage is thinner. At 2.5 months of supply, 19 days on market, and sales still just over asking, detached remains competitive even as prices soften year over year. The −5.1% YoY move in $/SqFt is real, but it reflects a firm market cooling, not a distressed one.

For a broader read on where Dublin’s overall market sits this cycle, see my mid-2026 Dublin cooling and buyer-leverage update and the longer-run 19-year Dublin $/SqFt analysis and 2027 forecast. Dublin’s loose supply also stood out across the region in my Alameda County 14-city overview. Buyers comparing this dynamic to Pleasanton can read the parallel Pleasanton detached-vs-attached gap analysis, where the premium runs even wider.

Methodology

Figures come from Bay East Association of REALTORS® monthly market reports for Dublin, covering detached single-family homes from 2007 and attached (condominium and townhome) homes from August 2014, the earliest month with continuous county-level attached data. Where reports overlap, the most recent report’s values are used, since later reports may contain revisions. Price-per-square-foot lines are smoothed over six months; units sold and active listings use a 12-month rolling average, with raw monthly values shown faintly behind. The COVID Anomaly window (2020–2022) is shaded on the trend chart. Monthly attached samples are small — often 10 to 30 sales — so month-to-month readings carry more noise than the detached series; I rely on the smoothed trends rather than single months. This analysis describes what the data shows and does not forecast the gap forward.

Work With a Buyer’s Agent Who Knows the Tri-Valley Data

Dublin is not one market — it is two, and they reward very different buyer strategies right now. Knowing which segment you are in, and what leverage the data gives you, is where a data-driven approach earns its keep.

Ready to talk through your options? I can walk you through the numbers for the specific segment, price tier, and neighborhood you are considering — no pressure, just the data.

📩 Schedule a Free Buyer Consultation

About the Author: Dr. X. Song is a licensed real estate buyer’s agent specializing in the Tri-Valley area — Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon, and Livermore. With a data-driven approach to every transaction, Dr. Song helps buyers cut through market noise and make confident, well-informed decisions. Learn more →