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Whether you are thinking about buying your first home in Dublin, selling a property you have owned for years, or simply trying to understand what the local market is doing — data tells the truest story. I recently completed a full analysis of 19 years of single-family detached home sales data in Dublin, California (January 2007 through February 2026), sourced directly from the Bay East Association of REALTORS®. Here is what the numbers say.

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A Tale of Three Market Eras

To make sense of where Dublin’s housing market stands today, it helps to view the past 19 years in three distinct chapters — each shaped by very different economic forces.

Era 1: The Pre-Crisis Boom and Bust (2007–2010)

When the data begins in January 2007, Dublin’s median single-family home price sat around $727,000, with homes selling for roughly $377 per square foot. The city was still riding the tail end of the mid-2000s housing boom — but warning signs were already appearing: inventory was piling up with over 150 active listings at peak, and months of supply had climbed above 6, firmly in buyer’s-market territory.

When the Financial Crisis hit in late 2008, Dublin was not spared. The median sale price fell to a trough of around $482,000 by 2010–2011 — a drop of roughly one-third from the 2007 highs. Days on market stretched past 80–100 days in some months, and homes often sold at 94–97% of list price.

Era 2: The Long Recovery (2011–2019)

From 2011 onward, Dublin staged a steady, durable recovery. Prices climbed consistently each year, driven by the region’s growing tech economy, strong job creation in the Tri-Valley corridor, and a persistent shortage of new housing supply. By 2019, the median had recovered to approximately $900,000–$1,000,000, and the $/SqFt trend line shows a remarkably steady upward slope of about $31 per year throughout this “normal” period.

“The 2011–2019 recovery wasn’t a fluke — it reflected real, structural demand driven by Dublin’s location, top-rated schools, and quality of life. The data confirms this was sustainable growth.”

Era 3: The COVID Shock and the New Normal (2020–Present)

Then came 2020. The pandemic-era housing frenzy transformed Dublin’s market almost overnight. Remote work unlocked suburban demand at scale, and buyers — flush with low-rate mortgages — bid up prices aggressively. The data captures this with striking clarity:

• Median sale prices surged to $1,825,000 at the COVID peak (2021–2022).
• Price per square foot hit a high of $878/sqft in May 2022.
• Months of inventory collapsed to under 0.5 months — an extreme seller’s market.
• Homes were regularly selling at 110–120%+ of list price.
• Average days on market dropped into the single digits.

The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes through 2022–2023 cooled this frenzy. Transaction volume dropped sharply, and some price correction followed — but crucially, Dublin did not see a crash. The combination of tight supply and strong underlying demand provided a firm floor under prices.

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Where the Dublin Market Stands Today (February 2026)

As of February 2026, Dublin has settled into what I would describe as a transitional, lightly balanced market — no longer the extreme seller’s market of 2021, but not a buyer’s market either.

Pricing

The median sale price in February 2026 was $1,555,000, with an average of $720 per square foot — well below the 2022 peaks, but significantly above pre-COVID levels. For context, that is roughly double where prices were in 2013–2014 during the mid-recovery period.

Inventory & Supply

Months of supply stands at 2.2 months in February 2026, up from near-zero in 2021–2022. While this is moving toward a more balanced market (typically defined as 4–6 months), Dublin still sits in seller’s-market territory. There were 36 active listings at the end of February — low by historical standards, but the highest since 2023.

Days on Market

Homes are taking an average of 29 days to sell — notably longer than the 7–10 day pace of the COVID boom, but still within a normal-to-active range. Throughout 2025, the average was around 20 days. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still moving quickly.

Transaction Volume

Only 12 homes sold in February 2026, which is on the lower end historically for Dublin. Over 2025, the monthly average was about 26 closings per month — a pace that reflects both affordability constraints at current rates and limited listing inventory.

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What This Data Means for Dublin Home Buyers

If you are a buyer, the picture is nuanced. The extreme urgency of 2021–2022 has passed — you are less likely to be in a 20-offer bidding war on every home. But do not mistake a calmer market for a buyer’s advantage:

• Inventory remains tight. With only ~2 months of supply, desirable homes still attract multiple offers and sell quickly. Pre-approval and preparation are essential.
• Price appreciation is ongoing. The long-run trend has been unbroken upward momentum. Waiting for a significant price correction in Dublin has historically been a losing strategy.
• The rate environment matters more than ever. At current price levels, every 0.25% move in your mortgage rate has a meaningful impact on monthly payments. Getting locked into a favorable rate is critical.

What This Data Means for Dublin Home Sellers

For sellers, the data tells an encouraging story — with important caveats:

• Values have held remarkably well since the COVID correction. If you purchased before 2020, you are almost certainly sitting on substantial equity.
• Pricing discipline matters now. Unlike 2021–2022, overpriced homes are sitting longer. The 29-day average DOM masks a wide spread — correctly priced homes sell in under 2 weeks, while mispriced ones drag on for months.
• Presentation counts. Buyers are less desperate than they were, which means condition, staging, and professional marketing have a larger impact on both price and speed of sale.

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2026–2027 Price Forecast: What the Trend Lines Suggest

Using the 19-year dataset and excluding both the Financial Crisis (2008–2010) and the COVID anomaly (2020–2022) from the regression — since both represent extraordinary dislocations rather than structural trends — the long-run trend lines point to continued appreciation.

The quadratic model — which better captures the accelerating pace of appreciation over the 2011–2019 recovery — suggests prices could approach or exceed the 2022 COVID-era peaks by 2027 if current macroeconomic conditions remain broadly stable. The linear model offers a more conservative floor. Either way, the data does not support a thesis of significant decline for Dublin single-family homes. The structural drivers — excellent schools (Dublin Unified School District), proximity to major tech employers, BART access, and a high quality of life — remain intact.

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Key Takeaways

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Thinking About Buying or Selling in Dublin?

Data is powerful — but applying it to your specific situation requires local expertise and an understanding of the nuances that no chart can fully capture. Whether you are a first-time buyer trying to break into this market, a move-up buyer looking to leverage your equity, or a seller wanting to maximize your return in the current environment, having the right strategy makes all the difference.

Data sources: Bay East Association of REALTORS® monthly housing reports, January 2007 – February 2026. Single-family detached homes in Dublin, CA only. Statistical trend analysis and forecasts by DrXSong Real Estate / drxsong.com. All figures are based on reported MLS data and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.